Assessment: Proceed with caution — needs discount
Reported churn of 2.1% monthly is misleading. Real logo churn of 4.3% and revenue concentration in the top 3 accounts (47% of MRR) signal fragile revenue worth 8–12% less than the asking multiple implies. SAMPLE DATA
| Risk Dimension | Score | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logo retention | 4.3% monthly churn | Red flag | 2× the reported rate |
| Revenue concentration | 47% in top 3 | Red flag | Any single exit costs 15%+ of MRR |
| Annual-plan decay | 22% at risk | Watch | 3 annual accounts showing non-usage |
| Zombie MRR | $3,400/mo | Watch | 8 paying accounts, 0 activity >60 days |
| MRR trajectory | Flat (+0.8% QoQ) | Stable | But growth masks declining cohorts |
Seller reports 2.1% monthly logo churn. Raw CSV shows 4.3%. The difference is attributable to the seller excluding downgraded customers and "reactivated" accounts from the churn calculation — both common but misleading methodology choices. SAMPLE
Customer #1 (Enterprise Corp) represents $8,400/mo — 22% of total MRR. Customer #2 ($5,200) and Customer #3 ($4,100) bring the top-3 concentration to 47%. Loss of any one would materially change the business's profile. SAMPLE
3 of 7 annual-plan customers show zero activity in the past 60 days. Combined MRR at risk: $5,800/mo (15% of total). These customers will likely not renew, creating a cliff in months 8–10 post-close. SAMPLE
8 accounts still paying but with no product activity for 60+ days. No login events, no API calls, no support tickets. These are likely auto-pay accounts that the billing system hasn't canceled yet. Historical patterns suggest 60% will churn within 90 days. SAMPLE
The target's metrics compared against published SaaS industry benchmarks. Benchmark data sourced from SaaSCapital, KeyBanc, OpenView, and Recurly (2025 surveys).
| Metric | Target (SAMPLE) | Industry Median | Top Quartile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly logo churn | 4.3% | 2.9% | <1.5% | Below median |
| Revenue churn | 3.1% | 2.1% | <1.0% | Below median |
| Annual NRR | 98% | 105% | >120% | Below median |
| CAC payback | 21 mo | 18 mo | <12 mo | Below median |
| Concentration (top 3) | 47% | 25% | <15% | High risk |
Industry benchmarks sourced from: SaaSCapital Annual Survey 2025 (mid-market ACV), KeyBanc SaaS Survey 2025, OpenView Partners SaaS Benchmarks 2025, Recurly Subscription Commerce Report 2025. Full benchmark methodology →
Send us your target's subscription CSV. Human-reviewed report in 2 business days.
Get your analysis — $9You'll get an upload link by email within 24h. Report in 2 business days.