The Annual-Plan Decay Projection

Identifies customers locked into annual plans who are statistically likely to cancel at renewal. This is the quietest revenue killer in SaaS M&A — invisible on the P&L until renewal season hits after close, by which point the acquirer owns the problem.

Part of the ChurnLens 5-Risk Buyer-Side Method →

What it is

Identifies customers locked into annual plans who are statistically likely to cancel at renewal. This is the quietest revenue killer in SaaS M&A — invisible on the P&L until renewal season hits after close, by which point the acquirer owns the problem.

What it looks for in the data

The projection isolates annual-plan customers, measures their remaining contract lifetime, and overlays behavioral signals (usage, support tickets, payment cadence) that historically precede renewal cancellation. The output is a projected renewal-rate curve by cohort.

Buyer-side signal: this lens surfaces a risk that sellers rarely volunteer because it makes their headline number look worse. In a SaaS acquisition, the gap between what this lens finds and what the CIM discloses is directly negotiation-relevant.

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80%
Overpay for Churn
4.2×
Real vs Reported
$340K
Avg Overpayment
23
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