The MRR Trajectory Forensics

Shows whether MRR is trending up, flat, or silently decaying — and separates headline MRR from cohort MRR. A flat headline number often hides declining cohorts masked by new sales. The forensics lens decomposes the trajectory so an acquirer sees what is real growth versus what is replacement revenue.

Part of the ChurnLens 5-Risk Buyer-Side Method →

What it is

Shows whether MRR is trending up, flat, or silently decaying — and separates headline MRR from cohort MRR. A flat headline number often hides declining cohorts masked by new sales. The forensics lens decomposes the trajectory so an acquirer sees what is real growth versus what is replacement revenue.

What it looks for in the data

The forensics lens decomposes headline MRR into cohort MRR (each customer-acquisition month tracked separately) and recomposes the trajectory ex-new-sales. The output distinguishes genuine growth from replacement revenue — i.e., is MRR rising because the base is expanding, or because new sales are masking base erosion?

Related diagnostic lenses

• The Churn Divergence Detector
• The Concentration Vulnerability Index
• The Annual-Plan Decay Projection
• The Zombie MRR Detector
• The Revenue Quality Scorecard