The MRR Trajectory Forensics

Shows whether MRR is trending up, flat, or silently decaying — and separates headline MRR from cohort MRR.orts masked by new sales. The forensics lens decomposes the trajectory so an acquirer sees what is real growth versus what is replacement revenue.

Part of the ChurnLens 5-Risk Buyer-Side Method →

What it is

Shows whether MRR is trending up, flat, or silently decaying — and separates headline MRR from cohort MRR.orts masked by new sales. The forensics lens decomposes the trajectory so an acquirer sees what is real growth versus what is replacement revenue.

What it looks for in the data

The forensics lens decomposes headline MRR into cohort MRR (each customer-acquisition month tracked separately) and recomposes the trajectory ex-new-sales. The output distinguishes genuine growth from replacement revenue — i.e., is MRR rising because the base is expanding, or because new sales are masking base erosion?

Buyer-side signal: this lens surfaces a risk that sellers rarely volunteer because it makes their headline number look worse. In a SaaS acquisition, the gap between what this lens finds and what the CIM discloses is directly negotiation-relevant.

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Related

9%
Median B2B SaaS revenue churn
88%
Median gross revenue retention
23
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